The Ministry of Economy released preliminary tax collection data for September 2026 on 1 October, showing a nominal year-on-year increase of 185% in total revenue, driven by high inflation. However, in real terms (deflated by CPI), collection grew only 2.3%, revealing a stagnation in economic activity. VAT receipts rose 3.1% real, while Income Tax fell 4.7% due to the lagged effect of the 2025 deduction updates. Social security contributions remained flat, reflecting weak formal job creation. The report highlights the fragile fiscal recovery and the reliance on inflation-driven nominal gains.
Key Takeaways
- VAT Resilience: Domestic VAT grew above inflation, suggesting sustained consumption of essential goods, but imported VAT dropped 12% real, indicating continued import compression from foreign exchange restrictions.
- Income Tax Drag: The decline in Income Tax reflects the non-indexation of tax brackets for 2026, causing bracket creep that reduces real revenue despite higher nominal profits.
- Fiscal Outlook: The mixed signals complicate the 2027 budget forecast; the government may need to adjust expenditure or seek additional financing if real collection does not accelerate in Q4 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is compiled and summarized by the AI based on publicly available information and is for general information purposes only. It does not constitute any form of formal tax advice, legal opinion, or basis for performance. Please consult a qualified professional tax advisor or legal counsel for tax advice.
Source: Read Official Announcement